Behind the absence of economic growth goals: how does fiscal and monetary policy go under the bottom line

Behind the absence of economic growth goals: how does fiscal and monetary policy go under the bottom line
“Why didn’t put forward the target economic growth target” “Issue 1 trillion special national debt for disease resistance” “As a government must really have a tight life” . As a document to guide economic and social work in 2020, the 2020 government work report was released, Multiple topics ranked online hot search.Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told Sauna and Yeewang that he did not put forward specific targets for economic growth this year, but pointed out that the priority is to stabilize employment and protect people’s livelihood, which reflects the bottom line thinking.It is a small and medium-sized enterprise, and individual industrial and commercial households have to overcome difficulties. In fact, it requires active fiscal policies to be more proactive and promising.Regarding the deficit rate hitting a new high of nearly 10 years, Wang Jianhui, director of the Capital Securities Research Institute, believes that this year ‘s deficit rate is set to 3.Arrangements of more than 6% should be said to be special arrangements under the impact of the epidemic, which are more appropriate and provide space for the subsequent resolution of some potential risks.From the first half of the year, there has been a considerable degree of looseness in the long-term, and there may be a trend of tightening in the second half of the year.Concern 1 What is the purpose of not setting a GDP growth target?Peng Sen, the former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that this year’s government work report did not put forward specific indicators of economic growth, and this indicator has been an important indicator that everyone has paid most attention to for many years.No specific indicators will be mentioned, mainly because China’s current economic development and national environment are facing some major uncertainties. The first is the impact of the epidemic. China’s growth in the first quarter of this year was only negative.8%, which is also the lowest single-quarter growth rate since GDP statistics.The GDP situation in the second, third and fourth quarters may be affected by international influence, especially the current epidemic situation continues to spread globally.And the stability of China’s current industrial chain is also affected, so the uncertainty of the annual GDP growth rate is still relatively large.However, according to general macro indicators, Pensen believes that from the perspective of finance, employment, prices, and balance of payments, although there is no specific GDP growth target, there are clear references to the other three indicators.”I think GDP growth is finally reflected in several other indicators. We should try our best to ensure that GDP has a relatively incremental growth, which is in line with the actual growth of several other indicators.”Penson said that not to mention the expected growth data now is to seek truth from facts and follow the regular adjustments.Jia Kang, Dean of the China Academy of New Supply Economics, said that in this year ‘s government work report, the conventions of previous years have been changed. Without mentioning the annual economic growth rate, I hope to guide all parties to focus more on focusing on”Stable” and “six guarantees”.Jia Kang believes that although the report does not mention economic growth targets, it also puts forward some other key economic goals to be achieved in the year. Among them, it is very obvious that the new urban employment needs to reach 9 million, which is actuallyFocusing more on the substantive issues. If the entire economic situation is to be stable, employment is the basic stability factor for people ‘s livelihood. The underlying logic is that it does not mean that we can ignore the process of grasping these substantive tasks this year.Unnecessary economic growth, because employment must reach a certain level, it must be supported by economic growth. Therefore, to reach 9 million new urban jobs, a growth rate of about 4% is required, and there is no increase now., Is to let everyone focus on how to do a good job of “six stability” and “six guarantees”, continue to work hard to optimize the structure and pursue development, you can hit a growth rate that meets expectations and supports 9 million jobs. I think this is an inherent one.Logic.Concern 2 How to view the deficit rate hit a new high since 2010?The 2020 government work report makes it clear that this year ‘s deficit rate is set to 3.With a plan of more than 6%, the scale of the fiscal deficit increased by 1 trillion compared with last year, and at the same time, 1 trillion special anti-epidemic bonds were issued.Wind’s searchable data shows that this is the year with the highest deficit rate arrangement since 2010.Li Xuhong, director of the Institute of Fiscal and Taxation Policy and Application, Beijing National Accounting Institute, told the sauna and Yeenet that in the face of the impact and impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the gradual implementation of an active fiscal policy will not only help promote economic growth but also helpTo suppress the world economic recession.Therefore, the deficit rate arrangement and the issuance of special government bonds proposed in the government work report are timely replacements.”In a counter-cyclical macroeconomic scale, a moderate deficit rate has a positive effect on stimulating the economy.Due to the uncertainty breakthrough in world economic fluctuations and recovery, and the potential difficulties in domestic economic development, the proposed deficit rate is 3.More than 6%, this indicator is not only higher than the 2 set last year.8% deficit rate is higher than 0.8 single, and there is room for upward adjustment, which not only makes a more objective prediction of the uncertainty of economic operation this year, but also reflects the gradual increase in economic stimulus. It is expected that the next stepThe half-year economic recovery will lead a strong push.”Li Xuhong said.At the same time, Li Xuhong believes that the previously increased deficit will be closely integrated with the deepening of the reform of the socialist market economic system, and according to this, it will pay close attention to issues such as employment and people’s livelihood.Reduce; the use of funds will focus more on efficiency, spend money on the blade, and drastically reduce expenditures such as the three public budgets to optimize the balance of fiscal revenues and expenditures, while stimulating the economy and avoiding unnecessary fiscal expenditures.Scale of the deficit.All in all, the above positive fiscal policies are targeted, efficiency-oriented, people’s livelihood-focused, and market-based confrontational economic stimulus, which are positive for helping the Chinese economy overcome difficulties, boost confidence, and boost growth.effect.Not only that, the “Government Work Report” also proposed that this year it plans to arrange special bonds for local governments3.75 trillion, also increased by 1 over last year.6 trillion yuan.At the same time, the proportion of capital funds for special bond budget projects will be increased, and the central budget will allocate 600 billion yuan for investment.We will focus on supporting the “two new and one heavy” construction that not only promotes the benefit of people’s livelihood, but also adjusts the structural thickening and stamina, mainly: strengthening new infrastructure construction, developing a new generation of information networks, expanding 5G applications, building charging piles, and promoting new energy vehiclesTo stimulate new consumer demand and help industry upgrade.According to the official website of the Ministry of Finance, from January to April this year, local government bonds issued 1877.3 billion yuan.Among them, 1,224 billion yuan of special bonds have been issued.Based on this calculation, the annual internal issuance is about 2.5 trillion local government special bonds.Concern 3 Does the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of special government bonds exceed expectations?The democratic market generally expects that the scale of special national debt issuance will be between 1 trillion and 2 trillion US dollars, and there have also been discussions on whether there should be a moderate fiscal deficit monetization.Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Institute of Phytosanitary Investment, and chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum, said to Sauna and Yeewang that the scale depends on how the finances are digging up resources in other areas. This report also pays special attention toMake better use of relatively idle funds while reducing central government expenditures.”If there is still room for digging, it is necessary to consider whether it is necessary to borrow too much debt.At the same time, it also leaves room for future proactive fiscal policies. I don’t know what will happen next in the international market.Therefore, this is not the upper limit of market expectations.”Lian Ping analysis said.Xu Hongcai, the deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Association for Policy Research, told Sauna and Yewang that our fiscal deficit is very stable. From the scale of the issuance, it shows that there is still a lot of room for policy and the use of a lot of strength has been overcomeDifficulties.He mentioned that the situation in the United States and Europe is even worse, and the scale of corporate bailouts in the early days has exceeded 10% of GDP, and the current situation is not as pessimistic as the market imagines.Recognizing the monetization of the fiscal deficit, he believes that there is no need at all, “not to this extent.”” Concern about the 4 quasi-rate reduction and interest rate reduction?On the basis of re-proposing that “stable monetary policy needs to be more flexible and appropriate”, this government work report proposes to comprehensively use means such as quasi-rate reduction, interest rate reduction, and refinancing to guide the increase in the supply of broad money (Note: M2) and the scale of social financingThe speed is significantly higher than last year.”Significantly higher than last year” is a new formulation of the annual government work report. Another new formulation is to “innovate monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, promote the promotion of enterprises to facilitate access to loans, and push interest rates to continue to fall.””, Dong Ximiao, the chief expert of Xinwang Bank and the chief representative of Zhongguancun Internet Finance Research Institute, told the sauna, Yewang, that the growth rate of M2 reached 11 in April.1% is already significantly higher than last year and may be higher next.For the first time, the prudent monetary policy of experts means that monetary policy will not implement quantitative easing as the United States does.Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the Institute of Phytosanitary Investment, and chairman of China ‘s Chief Economist Forum, told Sauna, Yewang that the “leading the broad money supply and the scale of social financing has grown significantly faster than last year”.In line with expectations, in April credit, the growth rate of social financing has been significantly improved, once M2 growth rate reached 11.1% is expected to increase further in the future, and may reach 12% or higher.The growth rate of social financing should be increased accordingly, which may reach 13% -14%, which is a significant increase from the number growth last year.He further stated that he did not expect the “monetary policy to brake” view in the near-term market, pressure from the external environment increased, the economy to maintain a stable operation, and weak conversion to obtain financing, etc., all of which required further financing scale.Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Institute of Digital Economy, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said that “the generalized money supply and the scale of social financing have significantly increased over last year.” This means further expansion of the money supply.Repurchase, MLF (middle-term lending facility) operation and other tools to cut interest rates, the next step of quasi-rate reduction and interest rate cuts are still within the expected range, and the market does not need to worry about liquidity.Lianping’s analysis of interest rate cuts and quasi-accuracy standards suggests that in order for banks to make better profits for the market economy, similar to reverse repurchases, MLF (medium-term borrowing facility) operating rates may further decline, and it does not rule out that the benchmark interest rate will be certain in the near futureThe possibility of a certain reduction.From the perspective of the deposit reserve ratio, three rounds of RRR cuts have been carried out at the beginning of this year, and the current large banks are 12.5%, small and medium banks 9.At 5%, the industry ‘s overall expected average level is 10.4%.Lian Ping believes that the average deposit reserve ratio of the banking industry may increase to less than 10% in the future.”The issuance of special national bonds and local special bonds requires someone to buy, and one of the purchasers is a commercial bank.While banks have to support the real economy and buy bonds, in this case, it is likely to further reduce the reserve ratio appropriately to match the issuance of special national bonds and local special bonds. The range and frequency will not be as great as they were a while ago.”Lian Ping said.Regarding the requirements of “innovating the monetary policy tool that directly reaches the real economy, gradually promoting enterprises to facilitate access to loans, and pushing the interest rate to continue to fall”, Dong Ximiao analyzed that there have been difficulties in debt issuance by some private enterprises before, thus providing some debt-supported financing toolsThere may be innovation in this area.Wen Bin, chief analyst of China Minsheng Bank, believes that different periods can be adopted to expand the scope of collateral, moderately increase the mortgage rate and other methods, innovate monetary policy tools, provide liquidity support to financial institutions, and guide capital to key areas and weak alternativesTo realize the conversion of wide currency to wide credit.Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao Pan Yichun Zhang Siyuan Editor Wang Jinyu Proofreading Li Shihui